A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
