How The Unusual Campaign Redefined the Typical Coach of the Year Formula.
Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It often serves as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.
On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or merely the biggest upset.
However this year's race is fundamentally different. The group of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions declining and longtime strugglers rising collectively. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.
This is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.
5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record
Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.
The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of nothing.
Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.
In a normal year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a normal campaign!
The area where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But he falls short here.
4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4
The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.
Even more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.
The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.
After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.
The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.
3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3
Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.
Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.
Still